The initial trading week of 2026, concluding on January 2nd, presented a fascinating, albeit turbulent, snapshot of the UK’s Packaging Recovery Note (PRN) market, as recorded by The Environment Exchange (t-EV). Following the traditionally slow end-of-year period, the first full week back into the regulatory compliance cycle revealed sharp divergences in material pricing, with some commodities stabilizing while others saw dramatic shifts compared to both the preceding weeks and the corresponding period in the previous year. This detailed analysis breaks down the performance across key material streams, offering context to the forces driving these early-year valuations.
The Holiday Hangover: Comparing Current Data with Previous Periods
The data for the week ending January 2, 2026, offers a crucial comparison point, especially when viewed against the preceding Friday (December 26, 2025) and the prior month, December 5, 2025. Furthermore, contrasting these figures with the opening week of 2025 (January 3, 2025) illuminates the longer-term trajectory of recovery obligations and market supply dynamics.
Aluminium: A Steep Correction After Year-End Spikes
The aluminium PRN market demonstrated the most immediate and significant correction. For the week ending January 2nd, the average trading price settled at £7.88. This figure is identical to the price recorded on December 26th, suggesting a brief stabilization immediately following the New Year. However, this stability masks a dramatic drop from the preceding weeks; the price on December 5th stood at a substantial £22.00. This indicates that the strong upward pressure observed in late 2025—likely driven by urgent compliance purchasing before the year-end—has evaporated. When looking back to the start of 2025 (£6.50), the current £7.88 price point is modestly higher, suggesting that while immediate spikes are controlled, the underlying cost of aluminium recovery compliance remains somewhat elevated compared to twelve months prior.
Glass Markets: Remelt Leads the Charge with Strong Valuation
The glass sector displayed robust pricing, particularly for remelt material. Glass Remelt PRNs were trading at £110.00 for the week ending January 2nd. This represents a slight increase from the £109.00 seen on December 26th, continuing a steady upward creep from the £102.75 recorded on December 5th. This sustained strength contrasts sharply with the opening price of 2025, which was only £60.00. The significant premium over the previous year suggests tighter supply dynamics or increased demand for cullet recycling infrastructure investment in the current compliance period.
Conversely, Glass Other (often representing mixed or lower-grade glass streams) showed signs of cooling, though remaining historically high. It closed the week at £100.00, down from £105.00 the week before, but still far exceeding the £95.39 seen earlier in December. Critically, this £100.00 valuation is substantially higher than the £56.00 benchmark from January 2025, underscoring persistent challenges in processing or placing lower-grade glass material efficiently.
Paper: Remarkable Stability at Historic Lows
The paper PRN market continues its pattern of extreme affordability and stability. Trading at £0.15 for the week ending January 2nd, the price matched the December 26th figure, showing no movement. This stability is consistent with the £0.14 price from December 5th. While this represents a minor increase from the £0.15 price seen a week earlier, the comparison to the previous year is stark: paper PRNs were priced at £0.50 on January 3, 2025. The market is clearly flush with supply, leading to compliance costs that are negligible for obligated parties compared to other materials.
Plastic: The Compliance Cost Leader Remains Volatile
As is typical, Plastic PRNs remain the most expensive compliance component. The price for the week ending January 2nd was £216.73. This marks a significant upward surge from the £205.04 recorded on December 26th and continues the climb from £203.71 earlier in December. This suggests that despite the year-end rush, the underlying demand for plastic offsetting capacity remains incredibly high as 2026 commences. The contrast with the prior year’s opening price is staggering: £60.06 on January 3, 2025. This nearly 260% year-on-year increase highlights the escalating financial burden of meeting obligations for plastic packaging, driven by complex regulatory targets and challenges in scaling advanced recycling infrastructure.
Base Metals: Steel and Wood Show Contrasting Trends
The Steel PRN market saw a slight easing following the end of the year. Priced at £0.90 for the latest period, it matched the price from the previous week but fell from the £1.01 recorded on December 5th. However, like aluminium, this remains above the £3.54 seen at the start of 2025, suggesting a degree of underlying price normalization after the 2025 surge.
The Wood market, meanwhile, showed a clear contraction in cost. Closing the first week of 2026 at £4.95, the price held steady from December 26th but marked a substantial drop from the £7.36 seen on December 5th. This downward trend is even more pronounced when compared to the January 2025 opening price of £0.50. While the current £4.95 is significantly higher than the 2025 benchmark, the recent softening suggests a temporary oversupply or reduced urgency in securing wood recovery documentation as the new compliance year begins.
Market Interpretation: Shifting Focus into the New Year
The data from the week ending January 2, 2026, reveals a market that has successfully digested the urgent compliance purchasing that characterizes the final weeks of the calendar year. The dramatic drop in Aluminium prices (£22.00 to £7.88) exemplifies this regulatory breather.
However, the sustained high valuation of Plastic (£216.73) and the continued upward trend in Glass Remelt (£110.00) signal that the structural compliance challenges for these materials are intensifying. Obligated producers must now pivot from year-end panic buying to strategizing for sustained, higher-cost compliance throughout 2026, particularly in streams where recycling capacity struggles to keep pace with regulatory targets. The Paper market, by contrast, offers a significant cost-saving measure, remaining exceptionally cheap and readily available. Analysts will closely watch the next few weeks to determine if the current stability across most sectors is a genuine market equilibrium or merely a temporary lull before the next round of procurement activity begins in earnest.