The final week of February 2026 concluded with notable turbulence across the UK’s Packaging Recovery Note (PRN) market, according to the latest data compiled by The Environment Exchange (t2e). Released on March 3, 2026, this weekly pricing report highlights significant fluctuations in several key material categories, underscoring the ongoing pressures facing compliance schemes and obligated producers as they strive to meet mandatory recycling targets for the current reporting year. The data, presented in Sterling (£), offers a crucial snapshot of market liquidity and the perceived value of obligated material evidence during a critical phase of the compliance cycle.
A Deep Dive into Material Performance: Aluminium Soars While Glass Stabilizes
The most dramatic movement of the week was observed in the Aluminium PRN market. Prices experienced a colossal surge, leaping from £35.00 the previous week (February 20th) to an astonishing £50.00 by February 27th. This 43% week-on-week increase suggests intense demand or potentially constrained supply availability as the year progresses. Comparing this figure to the same week last year (February 28th, 2025), where Aluminium was also trading at £50.00, indicates that while the price point is familiar, the rapid ascent in 2026 is concerning for businesses that assumed a steadier trajectory following the market’s early-year stabilization. Furthermore, looking back to the end of January 2026 (£4.83), the current price represents a near tenfold increase in just one month, signaling either a massive correction or acute year-end pressure already manifesting prematurely.
In contrast, Glass markets showed divergent trends. Glass Remelt PRNs demonstrated resilience, holding steady near the £100 mark. The price closed at £101.00, a marginal dip from the £101.64 recorded the week prior, but significantly higher than the £108.30 seen at the end of January. This suggests a relatively mature and predictable market segment, though still substantially higher than the £71.00 achieved in February 2025. Glass Other saw a minor uptick to £85.00, up from £83.00 the prior week, but this followed a sharp fall from £85.39 at the end of January. The consistent, high price for Glass Other, especially compared to the £45.00 price point in February 2025, reflects the ongoing challenges in processing certain glass streams efficiently.
Plastics Remain Stubbornly High, Paper Hugs the Floor
The Plastic PRN market continues to be the most expensive compliance burden for many businesses. The price held firm at an elevated level, registering £270.51 for the week ending February 27th. This is a slight escalation from £269.42 the week before and continues the trend of stability near the £268 mark observed throughout January. The year-on-year comparison is staggering: plastics were valued at only £70.00 a year prior (February 2025). This near 400% increase highlights the severe structural issues within plastic recycling infrastructure and the rising cost associated with meeting stringent targets for hard-to-recycle polymers.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Paper PRNs remain exceptionally low-cost, reflecting high recycling rates and a robust secondary materials market. The price remained static at £2.00 for the third consecutive week, mirroring the £2.00 rate from the previous month. While this is marginally higher than the £1.50 recorded in February 2025, the inflationary impact on compliance costs is negligible for this material stream. The baseline price of £0.15 seen back in January 2026 appears to have been an anomaly or perhaps a data point from a period of extremely low transaction volume.
Base Metals Show Renewed Activity
Steel PRNs experienced a significant upward correction this week. After hovering near baseline levels (£7.00 the prior week, and just £0.40 in late January), the price jumped to £19.91. This nearly threefold increase suggests that obligated parties, perhaps anticipating a tighter market in the run-up to the annual deadline, are now aggressively purchasing Steel PRNs. This movement contrasts sharply with the price one year ago (£9.40), indicating that the market dynamics for steel recycling evidence have tightened considerably over the last twelve months.
Wood maintained its steady course, showing no movement for the second week running at £14.69. This consistency, which dates back to the end of January, suggests a stable supply-demand balance for obligated wood packaging materials. This price point represents an astronomical increase compared to February 2025, when Wood PRNs traded for a nominal £0.20, underscoring the systemic overhaul in how wood waste streams are processed and certified for compliance.
Comparative Price Summary (February 27, 2026 vs. Key Historical Points)
| Material | Current Price (27-Feb-26) | Prior Week (20-Feb-26) | End Jan 2026 | Year Ago (28-Feb-25) | Y/Y Change | Trend Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium | £50.00 | £35.00 | £4.83 | £50.00 | 0% (to 2025 peak) | Extreme volatility; 930% increase since Jan 2026 low. |
| Glass Other | £85.00 | £83.00 | £85.39 | £45.00 | +89% | High sustained cost, slight weekly gain. |
| Glass Remelt | £101.00 | £101.64 | £108.30 | £71.00 | +42% | Stable high price point, minor deflation from Jan peak. |
| Paper | £2.00 | £2.00 | £0.15 | £1.50 | +33% | Lowest cost material; negligible compliance impact. |
| Plastic | £270.51 | £269.42 | £268.06 | £70.00 | +286% | Dominant cost driver; persistent high pricing. |
| Steel | £19.91 | £7.00 | £0.40 | £9.40 | +112% | Sharp recovery/spike this week after near-zero price in January. |
| Wood | £14.69 | £14.69 | £14.69 | £0.20 | +7245% | Extremely high historical valuation maintained. |
Market Interpretation and Forward Outlook
The data from the week ending February 27, 2026, suggests that market participants are bracing for a challenging remainder of the compliance year. The sharp inflation in Aluminium and Steel prices indicates that while certain materials like Paper and Glass Remelt offer relative stability, the high-value, high-volume materials are subject to considerable price swings.
The near-parity in Aluminium pricing between February 2025 and February 2026 masks the incredible journey taken to reach that £50.00 figure this year, which suggests that the market failed to adequately price in the difficulty of sourcing these notes early in the year. For obligated parties, the lesson remains clear: relying on late-stage purchases for materials that demonstrate volatility, particularly Aluminium and Steel, carries immense financial risk.
Plastic remains the primary compliance expenditure concern. The sustained trading above £268 suggests that producers have absorbed the new, elevated cost structure associated with achieving plastic recycling obligations, which environmental groups and regulators argue is necessary to drive investment in advanced recycling technologies.
Analysts monitoring the PRN market advise continued vigilance. With major compliance deadlines looming, the next few weeks will likely reveal whether the recent surge in Aluminium and Steel prices is a temporary panic buy or a sign of deeper underlying supply constraints that will define the closing figures for the 2026 reporting period. Businesses are encouraged to consult real-time pricing platforms, such as those provided by The Environment Exchange (www.t2e.co.uk), to make informed, tactical purchasing decisions rather than reacting to lagged weekly averages.
This analysis is based on average trading prices for Packaging Recovery Notes compiled by The Environment Exchange for the period ending Friday, February 27, 2026.